Trump is surging among a surprise demographic. It could cost Harris the White House

Donald Trump’s support among Arab-Americans has risen strongly, and it could prove crucial in Michigan

“We, as Muslims, stand with President Trump!” proclaimed imam Belal Alzuhairi at a rally in the Detroit suburb of Novi, Michigan, last week. Alzuhairi was addressing an enthusiastic gathering at which a group of clerics endorsed Donald Trump. The Republican nominee, who is often derided by the legacy media as xenophobic, was on hand and declared himself “thrilled to accept the endorsement of these highly respected leaders”.
He was also endorsed by Bill Bazzi, the Lebanese-born mayor of nearby Dearborn Heights, Michigan. In September, Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-born mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, another Detroit suburb, also endorsed Trump, calling him “a man of principles” and “the right choice”.
This pro-Trump trend among Arab-American voters in Michigan, one of seven swing states that will decide the election, is no isolated development. According to a YouGov poll released last week, among Arab-American voters, whether Christian or Muslim, Trump enjoys a national lead of 45 to 43 per cent over Kamala Harris. An earlier poll taken by the Arab American Institute, led by the respected Lebanese-American pollster James Zogby, found Trump edging out Harris by one point, 42 to 41 per cent.
Traditionally, Arab-Americans have favoured Democratic presidential candidates by a commanding majority. Now, however, a majority identify as either Republicans or independents. When the party labels are removed, 68 per cent of Arab-American voters say they are conservatives or moderates, while just 27 per cent profess to be liberals, according to YouGov. On the pressing question of who would better handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump beats Harris by 39 to 33 per cent among this group. YouGov also gives the Republican candidate a six point lead among the group over Harris on the economy, a vital national issue for voters of all demographics.
What accounts for this dramatic change? Alzuhairi may have spoken for many Arab-Americans by identifying Trump as the candidate most likely to bring peace. “He promises peace, not war!” the imam told his audience. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.”
Trump, whose 2020 Abraham Accords delivered the first Arab-Israeli peace treaties since 1994, has promised to work to “finish” both conflicts, while the Biden administration’s floundering diplomacy has consistently failed to end or even restrain the violence. In August, an activist group called “Muslim Women for Harris” disbanded and withdrew its support from the Democratic candidate over her approach toward the conflict.
For one Arab-American voter I spoke to, originally from Egypt and now a postgraduate student in international arts management, Trump’s “more unusual form of diplomacy conjures more optimism” than the failed Washington consensus. Closer to home, Trump’s campaign appears to resonate with many values that Arab-Americans hold dear, including a commitment to family, hard work and entrepreneurship. A retired US Army colonel of Palestinian heritage told me that “Arab Americans want the version of America they came here for, an America that respects God, honours country, and protects family … President Trump espouses these values.”
Another factor behind the swing towards Trump will surely be simple aversion to Harris, and the radical progressive agenda that a great many Democrats now embrace. Hamtramck, Michigan, where Amer Ghaleb governs alongside what is believed to be America’s first all-Muslim city council, recently outlawed flying the LGBTQ+ Pride flag on government property, much to the consternation of the pro-Harris Democrats who formerly controlled the city government. In Left-leaning municipalities across America, Muslim groups have joined conservative Christians to protest sexual content in school curricula, material that progressive Democrats tend to favour and defend.
In an election that remains nail-bitingly close, Arab-Americans comprise only about 1 per cent of the US population. But a few thousand of their votes could conceivably guarantee Trump’s victory next week.
Paul du Quenoy is a historian and president of the Palm Beach Freedom Institute